As marketers, we often rely more on instinct and perceptions of experience than rational thought. Marketers justify this type of decision making by convincing ourselves that when predicting the future, it's difficult to use the past or historical fact. Analysts on the other hand use historical fact and data as the only basis for decision making. They introduce a bias that often causes organizations to not see what is happening around them. This is how companies such as Folger's Coffee miss dramatic changes in a market, such as the coffee revolution sparked by a company like Starbucks.
In the book "Thinking Fast and Slow" , Daniel Kehneman demonstrates how bias influences decision making and how our minds are subject to systematic errors. As we all understand, but rarely consider, intuitive preferences consistently violate the rules of rationale choice. For example, if you like Ford cars, are you more likely to purchase Ford Stock, even if the stock isn't the best rational choice?
The notion of "Thinking Fast and Slow" refers to two systems in the mind, system 1 and 2. System 1 operates quickly without voluntary control, while system 2 are subject to the amount of concentration and reasoning you apply to a problem. For example, the author points our that system 2 applies to what we think of ourselves, while system 1 is the snap judgement we make when viewing others. Another example is the bias to act on an immediate emotional reaction, even when you are manipulated, instead of assuming or understanding that in fact you were manipulated into a decision, resulting in an error of judgement.
"We can be blind to the obvious, and we can be also blind to our blindness"
The book also explores the two dimensions of ourselves, the experiencing self, and the remembering self, which as noted by the writer, "do not have the same interests." For example, "what makes the experiencing self happy, may not make the remembering self happy." Another important point is that we are much better at recognizing mistakes in others, than spotting errors of judgement made by ourselves.
"Thinking Fast and Slow " is helpful in developing a higher degree of self awareness and promises to have a positive direct effect on your ability to formulate and execute marketing programs.
I've been a bit remiss in providing some thoughts and highlights coming out of Affilate Summit West 2012 (January 8 - 10 in Las Vegas). For those not familiar with the Summit, it's a biannual conference where performance marketers (translation: people that actually do the work to directly earn money that pays the mortgage) get together to share thoughts, ideas and to get a general sense of where we are all heading. Everyone in attendance uses a different approach, but all are centered around new models for lead generation, conversion and retention.
As was the case at past Summits, we are at yet another inflection point in marketing where the tactics of the past are giving way to opportunities created by the communications channels of the next 12 months. Each channel alone and in combination offers an infinite number of possible communications and revenue models that can be leveraged via either a highly focused or broad based multi-channel approach. As is always the case in marketing, those that take the time to learn faster, and then act with a test, read and role mentality can win, while those that cling to older models are destined to fail.
Of course, the other benefit of going to Summit is to learn about new networks and tools that can be placed into your CPA, CPC, PPC, SEO, Social Media and any other toolbox. This includes some innovative work being done by Sterkly, a company that is offering an interesting combination of software and affiliate offers that work alongside popular destination sites such as YouTube. There were also great presentations by Vinny O'Hare on that state of SEO, Robert Adler on link building and the famous Jeremy Schoemaker who provided an insightful keynote on the potential of the performance industry.
Affiliate Summit West was a sellout for good reason and it's why the upcoming Affiliate Summit East conference scheduled for August 12-14, 2012 will be even bigger.
I'm going to place a bet right here, right now that the breakout web content property of the year is going to be the AOL owned Patch.com. Patch what might you ask.
Patch.com is comprised of local sites, edited by professional writers, who pull together local news on the town or village level (population size 15 - 100K) For example, there was a traffic accident on the road in front of my house in the 36,000 resident village of Plainview, N.Y.. The Plainview Patch had pictures, a well written description and details on what occurred. In fact, only Patch covered the accident. The same for the gas leak in the local Chinese restaurant and coverage of various events around town. The coverage was high quality, appeared quickly after the event happened and provided just enough detail to keep you interested.
When my wife opens her AOL, the Patch screams the news of the neighborhood. Literally our neighborhood, as in down the block.
While I can't speak to the economics of this hyper local coverage, it's incredibly addictive. After all, once you get past world news, national news etc, what you really care about is what's happening in your little corner of the world. In an era where any writer can carry a quality camera, Patch reporters are defining the future of journalism. It's local, it's next door and it's high quality.
Patch.com will be the content phenomenon of the next 12 months. With 50% of all advertising revenues considered to be local, the Patch is going to grow quickly.
Huffington Post and Yahoo move aside, the Patch is where the action is and it's the start of where AOL will rebuild their content franchise.
Seth Godin has a great list of questions/project goals that can be used by any successful person to define a project. I'm going to use them for a presentation I'm giving tomorrow:
Whenever possible, take on specific projects.
Make detailed promises about what success looks like and when it will occur.
Engage others in your projects. If you fail, they should be involved and know that they will fail with you.
Be really clear about what the true risks are. Ignore the vivid, unlikely and ultimately non-fatal risks that take so much of our focus away.
Concentrate your energy and will on the elements of the project that you have influence on, ignore external events that you can't avoid or change.
When you fail (and you will) be clear about it, call it by name and outline specifically what you learned so you won't make the same mistake twice. People who blame others for failure will never be good at failing, because they've never done it.
Great post today in Mashable on how to get attention on Facebook. The post summarizes research conducted by Buddy Media that identifies factors such as time of day, and language that leads to some type of action from the consumer.
Engagement was boosted by factors such as time of day (best to post after work hours), day of week (Thursday and Friday are best), and best day depending on the topic. (eg; business and finance are best mid-week, entertainment as we get closer to the weekend. Sunday is the best day to post as a retailer.
Interestingly, urls that were full length had 3x the engagement of those that were shortened using a service like tinyurl.
Words that sparked the most Likes include Take, Submit, Watch, Post, Check, Comment, Click, Shop, Visit, Become a Fan, Tell Us, Share, See, Order. Words the caused the most comments include post, comment, tell us, check, like, submit, share, click, take, watch, visit, see, become a fan, shop, order.
To encourage "likes" ask the customer with a phrase such as "Like us if....".Click the links above to learn more.
New data released by Janrain/blue research indicates that 75% of consumers take issue with being asked to register on a website and would change their behavior. That said, 66% like social sign in (using twitter, Facebook etc.) as an alternative. The study shows that those that prefer social sign-in also are more likely to spend more.
As marketers, we can learn a great deal about persuasion and language from the State of the Union address and the Republican rebuttal. The way the conversation unfolds, the tone of the speech, the reaction of pundits and congress all set the tone or context for how Americans will interpret all kinds of messages, from the political to those used by marketers to sell products and services.
In terms of context, it's clear that American's are tired of blame, tired of the lack of respect politicians have for their money, and a need to get American back on track. We want to accelerate our recovery and prepare the country to be successful in the future. What happened in the past shouldn't be repeated, because we're moving on. Take out the pork and replace it with ideas of substance.
When President Obama got up to the microphone, instead of telling us what we didn't do, what we should have done, he focused on the future. How we are going to create more jobs and meet the challenges of education, energy etc. Obama hit his leadership stride by the end of the speech, by taking the highroad, talking about our "Sputnik Moment" and move to renewable energy. He stayed out of the weeds and spoke to our aspirations.
As a listener it's interesting how we all grabbed onto the "Sputnik moment" and can't recall a thing about the bogged down details in the middle of the speech.
For the most part, President Obama read the mood of the country right. The country wants reconciliation, and we want our leaders to work together(or at least pretend). They even sat together for the speech. The country is ready for progress, and for a brief moment, it appeared as if congress got it. In fact, by Congress sitting in an intermingled way, President Obama became our American president instead of a Republican or Democratic President.
That is, until Congressman Paul Ryan's Republican rebuttal. Now, to give him credit, he started big.... for about 5 seconds. My expectations were that he would talk about fiscal conservatism as a way to get the country on a path for growth. He'd be glad to hear about President Obama's desire to do big things, and how Republicans want to go even further. If President Obama was planning to solve the energy crisis, Ryan was going to solve the energy crisis and more.
After rightly acknowledging Congresswoman's Gabrielle Gifford's shooting, he started out strong.....
"As Chairman of the House Budget Committee, I assure you that we want to work with the President to restrain federal spending. In one of our first acts in the new majority, House Republicans voted to cut Congress's own budget. And just today, the House voted to restore the spending discipline that Washington sorely needs. The reason is simple. A few years ago, reducing spending was important. Today, it's imperative. Here's why. We face a crushing burden of debt. The debt will soon eclipse our entire economy, and grow to catastrophic levels in the years ahead. On this current path, when my three children - who are now 6, 7, and 8 years old - are raising their own children, the Federal government will double in size, and so will the taxes they pay. No economy can sustain such high levels of debt and taxation. The next generation will inherit a stagnant economy and a diminished country. Frankly, it's one of my greatest concerns as a parent - and I know many of you feel the same way."
Still not particularly visionary, but nothing to disagree with. Now here's where there was some hope, Republicans and Democrats working together...
"Our debt is the product of acts by many presidents and many Congresses over many years. No one person or party is responsible for it.
There is no doubt the President came into office facing a severe fiscal and economic situation."
After this I said wow, they are really going to step up. To share responsibility (good or bad) for the spending of the past. I'm thinking, I could really like this guy......until he said...
"Unfortunately, instead of restoring the fundamentals of economic growth, he engaged in a stimulus spending spree that not only failed to deliver on its promise to create jobs, but also plunged us even deeper into debt.
The facts are clear: Since taking office, President Obama has signed into law spending increases of nearly 25% for domestic government agencies - an 84% increase when you include the failed stimulus.
All of this new government spending was sold as "investment." Yet after two years, the unemployment rate remains above 9% and government has added over $3 trillion to our debt.
Then the President and his party made matters even worse, by creating a new open-ended health care entitlement.
A swing and a miss. We went from President Obama and his vision for a great America to Paul Ryan giving us a history lesson on past mistakes. Instead of telling us of what is possible (how about growing GDP so that tax rates naturally rise), he told us what we will lose. His speech was about the bad Democrats and how Republicans were going to undo what they did....a message exactly contrary to what we were hoping to hear.
I"m not trying to espouse the Democratic or Republican agenda or point of view. Simply to point out that context drives acceptance and persuasion. Here, the context was achievement and fatigue with blame. Into that context Congressman Ryan failed to deliver. He failed to anticipated what his audience was willing to accept. His failure is the failure of the Republican party (check out GOP.com, the Republican National Committee website, anyone want to buy a "I Fired Pelosi" T-shirt).
What does the future hold for Paul Ryan? I bet that instead of being invited to the next Tea Party, he'll be sitting on the sidelines, wondering why the next Reagan of his party passed him by.
On Long Island, my home, buying without a coupon is heresy. If you don't have a coupon in hand at Shop Rite, Kohls, or Macys, you can easily be voted off the Island for failure to demonstrate that you are frugal. I expect to be stuck behind someone at the supermarket checkout arguing that their out of date coupon for the product that kinda sorta matches the one on the coupon, is valid (my favorite was the woman at Dunkin Donuts that insisted on using the "free small coffee" coupon as a down payment against a medium coffee).
On Long Island It's common to over pay for whatever the latest "it" item is, but then feel good about the purchase since you bought it with a coupon or on a secret,that everyone knows about "friends and family" sale that just happens to be available to everyone. Bloomingdales will even hold your purchase so that you can come back and buy it on a sale day.
Unfortunately this coupon hysteria is now spreading on-line. The recent news that Google was trying to acquire Groupon was a wake up call to marketers that coupon marketers are starting to dominate PPC results and may start to influence SEO rankings as well.
Long story short, the coupon sites such as Groupon, ebates, Living Social etc are buying PPC keywords that say something like <your brand here> discount coupon. The consumer than clicks the link back to the coupon site for the offer. Given the millions being spent in PPC by the coupon sites, and the quality of the information provides, a consumer discount, these sites are supposedly getting high quality scores from Google. This translates into lower PPC pricing and a competitive advantage for these sites. Said another way, a company's acquisition costs can potentially be lower by working with a coupon site.
No where is this change more pronounced than in the affiliate marketing space, where coupon sites are quickly becoming the go to affiliate partners. For those just catching up to the affiliate conversation, affiliate marketers pay a percentage of sales to the affiliate partner in exchange for the lead or sale. It is estimated that 10% - 20% of all ecommerce moves through the affiliate channel. Affiliates promote product via PPC, SEM publishing, email, twitter, newsletters etc.
The coupon sites are also teaching the consumer not to buy before searching for and using a coupon. This is further reinforced by the ubiquitous "coupon code" request on the check out screen of most major on-line retailers.
Coupons are going be a top story in 2011. Marketers need to get on board fast...l..as in now.
One of the more interesting marketing questions is the riddle as to why President Obama is not connecting with more constituents. Television pundits are quick to blame the economy, the constant attacks by Republicans and failures of the democratic party to effectively defend his positions, but it doesn't add up. While all are probably contributing factors, the very fact that he is able to be so easily refuted indicates that there is something fundamentally wrong in the way his positions are communicated.
This problem reminds me of the Clinton vs. Dole election where Clinton continually talked about "bridges to the future" while Dole focused on policy issues. While Clinton provided a vision for America to embrace, dole focused on specific issues that needed to be addressed. Dole looked small, while Clinton rose as American's embraced his view of the future.
My advice to President Obama is to separate himself from the implementation of his policies and start to stand for the vision of his policies. For example, he should return to the vision of "universal healthcare" and leave the details to be worked out by others in his party. By President Obama continually linking himself to implementation, detractors were able to brand the policy as a negative, or "Obamacare". This had the effect of taking a grand vision, figuring out how to provide healthcare for all Americans (the true intent of President Obama's policies) and equivalizing the vision to the negative aspects of the policy. I'd like to see any Republican go head to head with the President and argue that everyone shouldn't have health care.
Other visions can include:
Education: All Americans should be able to reach their potential through education.
Immigration: We invite the best and brightest to once again come to our shores. Those that are already illegally here can compete with those that are not.
Energy: We will develop the technologies to become energy independent in 10 years
Jobs: Funding of venture funds that support business growth and formation in strategic industries
Space: We will once again explore the frontiers of space and the ocean
American's want their leaders to identify and articulate the core values of the country.
Jeff Immelt, GE CEO, in a speech to West Point cadets shows what true leadership sounds like:
"While some of America's competitors were throttling up on manufacturing and R&D, we de-emphasized technology. Our economy tilted instead toward the quicker profits of financial services.
Our country was built on great undertakings that brought out the best in government and business alike. But that kind of economic vision, that kind of focus on essential national goals, has been missing.
We need a new strategy for this economy. We should clear away any arrogance, false assumptions that things will be "OK" if we stick to the status quot. Rather, we should dedicate ourselves once again to be the most competitive country in the world."
President Obama has a choice. He can dust himself off from the election day drubbing and refocus the country on his vision of tomorrow, or he can join Bob Dole and get lost in the issues of today.
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Derek Sivers: Anything You Want Great 77 page read on the philosophy that drives CD Baby's success. Well written, honest and great reminder of how to build a great company. Perfect business book for a plane ride. (*****)
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